By Brandon Martini, COO, Stratus Financial
The aviation industry has been on an unpredictable ride since the COVID-19 pandemic, with fluctuations in hiring patterns, furloughs, and training disruptions. After experiencing a massive hiring surge in 2022 and 2023, pilot hiring trends have slowed significantly in 2024, with many carriers reporting a decrease of up to 40% compared to the previous year. However, the outlook for 2025 is considerably more stable, with hiring levels expected to return to pre-pandemic norms.
This creates both challenges and opportunities for current flight school students. Understanding these pilot hiring trends is critical as you plan your path toward becoming a commercial pilot. In this article, we’ll explore the pilot hiring trends post-pandemic, why 2025 is expected to offer more stability, and what it means for you as you prepare for a career in aviation.
The Pilot Hiring Surge: 2022-2023
When the aviation industry started to recover from the pandemic, airlines found themselves in desperate need of pilots. During the height of COVID-19, many pilots retired early, took voluntary leaves, or were furloughed, leaving the industry short-handed. As air travel demand surged in 2022, airlines began a massive recruitment push to fill the gaps. This was compounded by the aging pilot workforce, with many older pilots retiring at a faster rate than expected.
In 2023, airlines aggressively ramped up hiring efforts to make up for the labor shortfall and meet the rising demand for flights. As a result, the industry saw one of its most active hiring periods in decades, with thousands of pilots being brought on board, particularly by major carriers. These pilot hiring trends not only helped alleviate some of the immediate staffing challenges but also highlighted the cyclical nature of the aviation job market.
The 2024 Slowdown: A 40% Decrease in Hiring
By 2024, the intense hiring boom that airlines experienced in 2022 and 2023 has significantly slowed. According to FAPA.aero, airlines are now facing a 40% decrease in pilot recruitment compared to the previous year. This reduction in hiring is a result of a confluence of factors, many of which are tied to ongoing industry-wide challenges and uncertainties.
- Economic Uncertainty and Rising Costs
The global economy remains in a state of flux, with inflationary pressures, rising fuel costs, and broader financial instability affecting airlines’ bottom lines. Many carriers have opted for a more cautious approach to hiring, focusing on stabilizing operations and avoiding over-expansion in an uncertain economic environment. In this context, airlines are being more selective with their recruitment, prioritizing efficiency and cost management over aggressive growth. As a result, recruitment rates have slowed as airlines wait for more favorable economic conditions before scaling up hiring again.
- Supply Chain Issues and Aircraft Delivery Delays
One of the major factors contributing to the hiring slowdown is the ongoing disruption in the global supply chain, particularly in the aviation sector. Boeing has experienced significant delays in the delivery of aircraft due to safety events and quality problems with its products, which have caused production backlogs. Additionally, Airbus is also facing challenges in ramping up production, particularly around the availability of key components such as electronics, aircraft interiors, and engines. These delays have prevented the industry from bringing new planes into service at the expected rate, limiting the number of aircraft available for pilots to fly. With fewer new planes entering fleets, airlines have been able to slow their hiring cycles, relying more heavily on the existing workforce and adjusting their flight schedules accordingly.
- Operational Disruptions: Flight Delays and Cancellations
Although air travel demand remains strong, airlines continue to struggle with operational challenges such as staffing shortages, maintenance backlogs, and air traffic control delays. These disruptions have strained the industry’s ability to maintain its flight schedules and led many carriers to prioritize stabilizing existing operations over expanding hiring. The focus on improving efficiency and managing existing flight operations means that many pilots who were hired in 2023 may still be in the process of completing their training or gaining necessary operational experience, easing the immediate demand for new recruits.
- Market Turbulence and Seasonal Demand
The post-pandemic airline market has been marked by significant volatility. Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers (ULCCs) have faced increasing competition from major network carriers, forcing them to adapt their strategies. Some have had to reassess their route networks and business models to remain competitive in the face of rising operational costs and shifting consumer demand. As a result, ULCCs are not hiring at the same pace they were during the peak of the pandemic recovery.
Additionally, some major carriers have been experiencing financial setbacks, particularly due to overcapacity in certain markets, which has led to reductions in seat offerings. This is affecting hiring plans, as airlines scale back expansion to reduce excess capacity. Mergers and consolidations within the industry are also contributing to this slowdown. For instance, the recent failed merger attempt between Spirit Airlines and JetBlue resulted in pilot furloughs at Spirit and significant route cuts at JetBlue. Similarly, hiring at Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines remains uncertain, as both airlines await the outcome of their ongoing merger discussions, adding another layer of unpredictability to the job market for pilots.
- Training Backlogs and Delayed Pilot Integration
Even as airlines continue to hire, the process of integrating new pilots into the workforce has been slower than expected due to lingering training backlogs. During the pandemic, many flight schools were forced to pause or reduce their training programs, resulting in a delay in the pipeline of new pilots entering the industry. Now, with many new pilots still working through their flight hours and training programs, the supply of qualified candidates has not kept pace with the ongoing demand from airlines. This mismatch between the number of pilots ready to fly and the number needed to fill positions in the cockpit is creating a slower hiring cycle, even as the overall demand for pilots remains strong.
Looking Ahead to 2025: Stability and Return to Pre-Pandemic Hiring Levels
While 2024 presents challenges for those entering the aviation workforce, there is reason for optimism in 2025. Industry experts predict a return to more stable pilot hiring trends with projections indicating that airlines will hire in line with or slightly above 2019 levels. This means that after the slowdown in 2024, the demand for pilots is expected to rebound in 2025 as airlines resume more normal hiring practices and stabilize their workforce needs.
- Stable Hiring Environment
As airlines work through current operational challenges and adjust to post-pandemic realities, 2025 is shaping up to be a more predictable year for recruitment. Hiring will likely be steady, aligning with pre-pandemic norms, which means that the frantic over-hiring of the past two years will level off, providing a more stable environment for aspiring pilots.
- Balanced Demand and Supply
The airline industry expects continued robust growth in air travel, with global passenger demand projected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. However, with the pilot shortage still looming large, airlines will continue to recruit, albeit at a slower and more controlled pace. By 2025, the backlog of pilots waiting to enter the workforce should start to clear up, allowing airlines to fill open positions more predictably without the extreme swings in hiring seen over the last two years.
- Long-Term Career Opportunities
Although hiring may slow in the short term, the long-term outlook for pilots remains strong. The aging pilot workforce, coupled with the industry’s continued expansion, means that there will still be significant demand for pilots well into the next decade. The key takeaway here for flight school students is that 2025 offers a more stable environment where recruitment practices will be based on actual demand rather than reactive over-hiring. This will allow for more realistic timelines in career progression.
Why Flight School Students Should Care
As a flight school student, it’s important to understand how the current pilot hiring trends affect your career timeline and prospects. While the 2024 slowdown may feel discouraging, the more stable environment expected in 2025 offers several important takeaways for you:
- Timing Your Entry
If you’re in the early stages of your training, don’t be discouraged by the short-term slowdown. The reduced hiring in 2024 presents an opportunity to focus on your skills and build a solid foundation. By 2025, as hiring stabilizes, you’ll have a better chance to enter the workforce at the right moment, when airlines are once again looking for fresh talent.
- Strategic Job Search
When the hiring cycle picks up again, the competition for pilot positions may become more intense. With thousands of pilots trained in 2023 and 2024, you’ll want to stand out. This means refining your resume, gaining flight hours through commercial or flight instructor roles, and networking within the industry to ensure you’re well-positioned when the hiring ramp-up begins.
- Incentives May Vary
In 2025, while hiring will stabilize, the incentives (such as signing bonuses or higher starting salaries) may not be as widespread as they were during the peak of the hiring boom. However, you can still expect to see competitive compensation packages, especially from regional carriers and low-cost airlines. Being flexible and open to regional or smaller airline opportunities might be a strategic way to enter the industry and build experience.
- A Longer Career Outlook
The pilot shortage is not going away anytime soon. Even with the more stable hiring patterns expected by 2025, the ongoing demand for pilots will continue well into the next decade. By the time you’re ready to enter the job market, the outlook remains strong for long-term career stability.
Final Thoughts: Preparing for a Sustainable Career
The future of aviation is still bright. Understanding pilot hiring trends is key to preparing for a sustainable career in aviation. As the industry stabilizes in 2025, aspiring pilots will find a more balanced hiring environment to launch their professional journeys. By staying focused on your training and being prepared to enter the workforce when the hiring environment becomes more predictable, you’ll be in an excellent position to take advantage of the opportunities ahead.
As a flight school student, this means continuing to build your skills and remaining patient—2025 and beyond will offer a more sustainable, stable environment for your long-term career as a commercial pilot. The road ahead may not be as fast paced as it once was, but it remains full of potential for those who are ready to take flight.